Predictions

Calls are votes

Every token page carries the Gem Hunters Sentiment vote, with a Gem and a Rug button. Voting Gem says the price will go up; voting Rug says it will go down. There is no separate prediction form: a vote is what records a call.

A call keeps the side you voted and the token's price at the moment you voted. You choose no target price and no deadline: every call is scored at five horizons at once, 1 day, 7 days, 30 days, 90 days and 1 year after you made it.

When a vote records a call

• After voting on a token, you wait a while before you can vote on it again.
• Voting the same side again on a token soon after counts as the same call; changing side records a new one.
• Your rank decides whether you can vote, and how many actions you can take per day: posts, likes and votes count against the same daily limit. See Ranks and rewards.

Each vote earns 1 gem, once per token per 24 hours.

How a call is scored

Calls are scored regularly, once each horizon has passed since the call.

• A Gem call is correct when the price at the end of the horizon is above the price at the vote.
• A Rug call is correct when it is below.
• A minimal move does not count: it is left out of the score, neither correct nor wrong.

Skill and edge

Being right is easier on some days than others, so your calls are compared with everyone else's on the same side and horizon.

• Edge is how many more correct calls you made than luck alone would give.
• Skill turns that into a score from 0 to 100: how unlikely it is that luck explains your calls. 50 is a coin flip, and a low Skill means your calls tend to go the other way.

The Calls tab

A profile's Calls tab shows the record of that user's calls, one column per horizon (1d, 7d, 30d, 90d, 1y): Hit rate, Edge, Correct calls and Skill. A dash means no call is scored at that horizon yet. The number beside the tab counts every call the user has made, including those not scored yet, so it can be higher than the calls in the table.

The tab appears once at least one of the user's calls has been scored.

Calls are the opinions of other users, not investment advice.