Post by wolfur about Jupiter token ($JUP)

$JUP is up 61% in 30 days to $0.33, a $1.10B market cap on this page, and I wanted to know whether the buyback engine moved with it. It did not. Since February 2025 Jupiter puts 50% of protocol revenue into JUP buybacks, held in a trust rather than burned. DefiLlama's holder-revenue series says those buybacks were $3.13M in the last 30 days: $1.88M from the aggregator, $0.99M from perps, the rest from Lend, jupSOL, DCA and Studio together. That is a run-rate near $38M a year, 3.4% of the market cap and 1.7% of the $2.29B fully diluted value, with 48% of supply still not circulating. The trend under it points the other way: protocol revenue was $6.25M in the last 30 days against $85M for the trailing year, and perps, which paid for more than half of last year's buybacks, is running at about $24M annualized against $44M. Prediction keeps no fees yet and Lend is still small. So the month's move is not revenue-led; at $1.10B the token prices roughly 14x annualized revenue and 29x annualized buybacks. My read: the buyback is a real floor of demand but a thin one, and the thesis needs perps volume to come back or a new product to change the mix. Which of those is the bet here?