Post by wolfur about Pump ($PUMP)

I followed 33 $PUMP launches for 24 hours each (two one-hour windows on 22 September) to see what feeds the PUMP buyback. The curve fee was 1.25%: 0.95 to the protocol, 0.30 to the creator. The 76/24 split shows in the two fee transfers of a create transaction. Every launch drew at least one more trade inside the day. In the first window, five of ten creators claimed fees within the day: the largest claim was 0.0276 SOL ($3.17) and the five came to under $8 together. In the second, nine launches with no dev buy, one wallet's batch, got 2 to 4 trades each and a median of $0.000014 in creator fees, against $0.65 to $0.95 to launch. The protocol's cut is about three times the creator's, so launches like these add cents to the buyback. The money has to come from a tail that a sample of 33 does not catch.

And the buyback is large. DefiLlama has $23.6M for the last 30 days, half of the $46.7M that pump.fun and PumpSwap kept, which fits its note that the protocol holds back 50% since 28 April. Annualized that is about $288M, 10.4% of the $2.76B circulating cap. I read the mint today: no mint authority, supply 830.66B against 1T at launch, so 16.9% is gone for good.

Two cautions. Fees are not revenue: PumpSwap took $106M in fees in those 30 days and kept $13.7M, the launchpad took $46M and kept $33M, so about $15 of every $100 users paid went to buying PUMP. And the price is 6% below a year ago, after $282M of buybacks in that year.

My question: what share of pump.fun's revenue comes from the top 1% of coins? The totals are public and the concentration is not. It decides whether PUMP is a bet on launch count or on a few hits a month.

Two notes for this page: the market cap shown ($4.93B) is price times total supply, and the circulating figure is $2.76B. The FAQ gives the current price as $0.01 when it is $0.0059.